This is a sample scenario built from current Oregon Energy Trust program rules, Pacific Northwest typical 2026 ductless install quotes, and pending HEEHRA launch assumptions. No single homeowner matches this exact composite — the math below is a worked example of what a supplemental mini-split addition costs for a low-income household in a small Portland bungalow.
The point is to show how a modest supplemental electrification project pencils when both the current Energy Trust stack and the future HEEHRA layer are applied, not to profile a specific customer.
The homeowner and the home
The home is a 1,200 square foot 1922-vintage Portland bungalow in the Sellwood neighborhood, single-story with a finished attic bedroom and an uninsulated full basement. Current heat is a 2017-installed 96% AFUE gas furnace feeding forced-air ducts. The furnace has 10-12 years of remaining useful life and is working fine. The home has no central AC — summer cooling is currently handled by one window unit in the primary bedroom and a box fan in the living room.
The homeowner's goal is twofold: reduce gas consumption during shoulder seasons (roughly 8 months of the year when outdoor temperatures are 40-65 degrees Fahrenheit and a heat pump is dramatically more efficient than a gas furnace), and add a reliable source of summer cooling for the main living area. A full furnace replacement is neither needed nor financially sensible right now.
The climate zone is ASHRAE 4C — marine. Portland's 99% design temperature is 22 degrees Fahrenheit, which is mild by American cold-climate standards and means standard-tier heat pumps (not NEEP Cold Climate) are acceptable for supplemental use cases. For sub-freezing hours (typically 60-100 hours per winter in Portland), the existing gas furnace handles the load.
The household income is approximately $48,000 for a two-person household, which puts them at roughly 55% of the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro MSA AMI. This is solidly inside the HEEHRA under-80% tier when Oregon launches its portal.
The equipment spec
The proposed system is a Mitsubishi MSZ-FS12NA single-zone wall-mounted ductless unit paired with a matched MUZ-FS12NA outdoor condenser — 12,000 BTU nominal, 1-ton class, HSPF2 10.5 and SEER2 22.0. The unit is the baseline-quality single-zone Mitsubishi in the high-SEER tier, AHRI-certified and on the Energy Trust of Oregon approved equipment list.
The indoor head mounts on the interior wall between the living room and dining room, providing direct airflow to the primary living space. The outdoor condenser mounts on the south side of the house on a concrete pad. A 36-foot refrigerant line set runs through the basement and up a chase to the indoor head.
Control is a Mitsubishi kumo cloud controller with Wi-Fi integration to the homeowner's existing Nest thermostat on the gas furnace, configured so the heat pump handles outdoor temperatures above 35 degrees Fahrenheit and the gas furnace takes over below that threshold. This is a standard Pacific Northwest "dual fuel" or "hybrid" configuration that maximizes operating-cost optimization across the seasonal temperature curve.
The homeowner's existing 125A electrical panel has headroom for the 20-amp ductless circuit. No panel upgrade is required.
The pre-rebate quote
Three-installer bids from Portland-area Energy Trust Trade Ally contractors for this exact equipment spec cluster between $5,800 and $7,200. The midpoint used in this sample is $6,500. The itemization below:
- Equipment (outdoor unit + indoor head + kumo controller): $3,200
- Labor (2-day install, 2-person crew): $2,100
- Electrical (new 20-amp 240V circuit from panel to outdoor unit): $650
- Refrigerant line set + insulation + wall penetrations: $350
- Permits (Portland mechanical + electrical): $200
Single-zone ductless in the Portland market has more install cost variability than multi-zone projects, because labor-hour minimums dominate the small-project pricing. The low end of the quote range is a 1-day install from a smaller shop; the high end is a 2-day install from a full-service contractor with hoisting equipment for difficult outdoor condenser placement.
The rebate stack
Three layers apply in the current (pre-HEEHRA) state, and four layers apply once Oregon's HEEHRA portal is live. The order below is the practical filing sequence once HEEHRA is available.
Manufacturer rebate — $400. Mitsubishi Cool Cash on single-zone FS-series units typically runs $300-$500 in spring and fall campaigns. The $400 assumption is the midpoint for spring 2026 promotions. Filed by the contractor at quote with manufacturer pre-approval. This is the most reliable rebate layer — manufacturer promotions run year-round with minor gaps.
Energy Trust of Oregon utility rebate — $1,200. Energy Trust pays a ductless heat pump rebate for supplemental installations in homes currently heated by gas, sized based on indoor unit capacity class and climate zone. For a 1-ton single-zone FS-series unit in Portland, the 2026 tariff pays $1,200 at point-of-sale through Trade Ally contractors. Energy Trust also offers a bonus rebate for customers who take a home energy assessment before install — an additional $150 that is not assumed in this scenario but is available.
HEEHRA full tier (Oregon, pending launch) — $2,500. An under-80% AMI household in Oregon will qualify for 100% of project cost reimbursement up to the $8,000 heat pump cap once the state portal launches. Oregon Department of Energy has signaled that the HEEHRA payout on a 1-ton project already claiming Energy Trust will land in the $2,500-$3,200 range under its current draft methodology. The $2,500 figure here is the conservative midpoint — once ODOE publishes final rules the number will firm up.
Federal 25C — zero. 25C was repealed for heat pumps by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, effective December 31, 2025. For 2026 installs, there is no federal tax credit on air-source heat pumps. This line is included only to make clear it was worth roughly $1,500-$1,950 on an equivalent project a year earlier. See the federal tax credits status page for current program status.
Total rebate stack once HEEHRA is live: $400 (Mitsubishi) + $1,200 (Energy Trust) + $2,500 (HEEHRA) = $4,100.
Total rebate stack before HEEHRA launches: $400 + $1,200 = $1,600.
Application order
The practical filing sequence for a Portland homeowner pursuing this stack once Oregon's HEEHRA portal is live:
- Confirm the contractor is an Energy Trust Trade Ally in good standing, and that they have registered for Oregon's HEEHRA certification (when Oregon opens the certification portal).
- At quote, lock in Mitsubishi Cool Cash in writing via manufacturer pre-approval.
- Submit the HEEHRA application through the Oregon state portal concurrent with contract signing. Application turnaround times are not yet published for Oregon but cluster around 10-21 days in other live states.
- At install, the contractor applies Mitsubishi, Energy Trust, and HEEHRA rebates to the invoice as point-of-sale deductions.
For a homeowner who cannot wait for HEEHRA launch — because the existing furnace is failing, or because they want summer cooling for the current summer — the decision is whether to install now with $1,600 in rebates or wait 6-12 months for the potentially higher $4,100 stack. This is a $2,500 decision and depends entirely on timing urgency. See the HEEHRA state-by-state status tracker for current Oregon launch expectations.
The net number
With HEEHRA live at time of install: pre-rebate cost $6,500, total rebate stack $4,100, net out-of-pocket $2,400.
Without HEEHRA (current state as of April 2026): pre-rebate cost $6,500, total rebate stack $1,600, net out-of-pocket $4,900.
The $2,500 delta between the two scenarios is the value of waiting for HEEHRA launch. For a 55% AMI household, that $2,500 is a meaningful sum — it is roughly 5% of annual household income, which is a larger proportional benefit than the same dollar figure would represent for a higher-income household.
Operating cost comparison: the existing gas furnace at current NW Natural rates ($1.15 per therm) costs roughly $680 per year for this 1,200 sqft bungalow. Shifting 45% of heating demand to the heat pump adds about $144 in Pacific Power electricity and saves about $207 in gas — net heating savings of $63 per year.
Summer cooling is almost pure new operating cost rather than a savings. The new heat pump adds roughly $40 per year over the old window unit, so net annual operating impact is approximately +$23 in the homeowner's favor.
This is not an operating-cost payback project. The financial case rests on the rebate stack, the comfort upgrade, and gas-price insurance — see the whole-home electrification ROI analysis for where supplemental projects fit in a longer-horizon strategy, and the mini-split vs central heat pump comparison for when single-zone supplementation is the right call.
Why this scenario is typical
The homeowner who fits this composite is a lower-income Portland resident in an older small single-family home. Portland has a large stock of pre-1940s bungalows, many owned by long-tenure residents in the lower half of the MSA income distribution with modern gas furnaces and no central AC.
Supplemental electrification is the right match for this housing stock and income profile. The $6,500 pre-rebate cost is within reach for most working-class households, especially with HEEHRA covering the vast majority of out-of-pocket.
The dual-fuel configuration also reflects Pacific Northwest climate realities. Keeping the gas furnace for deep-winter backup eliminates the cold-climate-performance anxiety that drives some Portland homeowners away from heat pumps — dual fuel is the region's electrification bridge strategy, not its endpoint.
The HEEHRA income tiers explained walkthrough covers how rebate eligibility resets on subsequent equipment installs — the next logical move in 5-8 years, when the furnace ages out, is a full replacement that captures HEEHRA again on the larger equipment.
Use the rebate finder on the homepage to confirm current program status in your specific Portland-area ZIP. The heat pump calculator models net cost for your own AMI band, equipment choice, and ZIP. The HEEHRA guide covers the full income-tier and eligibility framework for when Oregon's portal opens.