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Interactive · Operating savings

How much will you actually save per year?
Your current bill vs your heat-pump bill.

Rebates answer the upfront question. This calculator answers the other half — what happens to your energy bill every winter after the install.

How much does a heat pump save on heating bills per year?

Typical annual savings: 60–70% for electric-resistance homes, 35–55% for oil and propane, 20–40% for natural gas. The exact number depends on your climate zone, equipment tier, local electricity rates, and how tight your envelope is. Use the calculator below for an order-of-magnitude estimate.

Total dollars spent on heating fuel last winter (not the gas/oil delivery price per unit — the full annual bill).

Current heating fuel

Electric-resistance homes see the biggest savings. Natural gas is the smallest delta.

Climate zone

Cold-climate zones (6–7) require cold-climate-rated equipment to hold efficiency at low temperatures.

Heat pump tier

Premium inverter units (variable-speed, COP 3.5+) are required by most 2026 rebate programs in cold climates.

How to interpret the number

This is an estimate, not a quote. The underlying math multiplies your current heating bill by a savings factor derived from published heat pump COP values for your climate zone and equipment tier.

What the number does not account for: envelope tightness (a blower-door-confirmed tight home cuts load 20-30% vs the assumed baseline), duct losses for ducted systems (typically 10-25% for old duct runs), thermostat setpoint behavior (heat pumps work best with steady setpoints; big setbacks hurt efficiency), and your specific utility's electricity rate band (the national average is 17 cents/kWh; states range from 10 to 30+).

For a number accurate enough to sign a contract against, pair this calculator with a proper Manual J calculation — see the Manual J load calculation guide. For the upfront cost side of the math, use the heat pump calculator.

When you are ready to stack rebates against the install cost, the stacking simulator shows the rebate layer math and the rebate finder pulls the live programs that apply to your ZIP.

Operating savings — frequently asked

Order-of-magnitude. The math uses published COP values by climate zone + equipment tier, and the fuel-to-electric-rate ratio. It does not account for envelope tightness, duct losses, thermostat behavior, or local electricity rate bands. For a contract-ready number, pair with a Manual J calculation.
Electric resistance runs at COP 1.0 (100% efficient — one kWh in, one kWh of heat out). A modern heat pump runs at COP 2.5-4.0. Replacing resistance heat with a heat pump typically cuts the heating bill by 60-70% because you are moving heat instead of generating it.
Natural gas is the cheapest fossil fuel on a per-BTU basis. The heat pump still wins on efficiency, but gas starts from a lower dollar base. Savings land 20-40% rather than 60%. Hybrid dual-fuel setups often make more financial sense than a full gas-to-heat-pump conversion in gas-service areas with cheap winter rates.
Premium inverter units are variable-speed compressors with a rated COP of 3.5 or higher at design conditions. Most 2026 cold-climate rebate programs require this tier. Standard is legacy single-speed equipment at COP 2.5-3.0 — still code-legal, but often ineligible for HEEHRA and many utility rebates.
Zone 1-3 heat pumps run near nameplate COP all winter. Zone 6-7 heat pumps drop COP at low ambient temperatures (capacity can fall 40%+ at 5°F). Cold-climate-rated premium inverter equipment mitigates this but does not eliminate it. Zone 6-7 with standard equipment = worst savings; Zone 4-5 with premium = best value.
Ready for the full math

Now size it, stack it, quote it.

Pair operating savings with install cost + rebate stack + three local installer quotes.

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